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2023 predictions: Is the U.S. economy headed for a recession?

In spite of the tumult of the past year, the U.S. economy is closing out 2022 in much the same condition it was in at the end of last year, with inflation running around 7%, an ultra-tight labor market and vibrant levels of consumer spending.

But where it’s been over the past 12 months, and where it’s headed in the year ahead, is the result of an unprecedented set of factors precipitated by the impacts of a global pandemic and policymakers’ collective struggles to navigate new problems with old tools and strategies.

Phil Dean, public finance senior research fellow at the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, said inflation issues were foremost on the minds of economists and policy makers in 2022 as the impacts of higher prices hit lower income families the hardest.

“Obviously, record inflation and the policy responses to inflation have been the big economic story of…

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