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How Arizona’s economy has hit the pause button

Arizona’s economy and job recovery hit the pause button in the third quarter, as the pandemic gained momentum again. Although state job growth slowed during August and September, according to preliminary estimates, employment is close to its pre-pandemic high. That is just the first milestone in the state’s labor market recovery. The unemployment rate remains above the national average and above its level before the pandemic began. House prices continued to surge in the third quarter, reflecting strong demand as well as supply disruptions. Housing permit activity remained strong.

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Assuming that the vaccines remain effective against COVID-19, the forecast calls for Arizona job and population growth to gain momentum in the near term. In contrast, income growth and retails sales soften as federal income support dissipates and households draw down savings. Downside…

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