For about two months now, signals from the oil market have pushed traders from one extreme to another, as headwinds clash with tailwinds, with the global economic slowdown countering fears of a shortage. In the past couple of weeks, the see-sawing has increased considerably, as both concerns about the slowdown of the global economy and fears of an oil or fuel shortage intensify. As a result, the oil market has become a very confusing place.
Earlier in October, for example, the International Monetary Fund issued a stark warning about the global economy. In it, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, wrote that “The 2023 slowdown will be broad-based, with countries accounting for about one-third of the global economy poised to contract this year or next.
The three largest economies, the United States, China, and the euro area will continue to stall. Overall, this year’s shocks…
