It is impossible to forecast with any precision the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, due to the uncertainty about how events will play out. But it is important to start to get to grips with the possibilities to guide policymakers and also businesses and the public. So the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has provided a useful service in publishing updated economic forecasts, factoring in the war’s impact and outlining potential scenarios.
Not surprisingly, the most striking aspect of this is the updated inflation forecasts, with consumer price inflation expected to average close to 7 per cent this year, driven largely by higher energy prices but now quickly spreading. From a position where inflation was expected to peak early this year before falling off quickly, a prolonged period of price pressures is now…
