Deutsche Bank UK economist Sanjay Raja also predicts the UK economy flatlined in March, and could contract in the current quarter (April-June).
Here’s his take the UK GDP report (to be released in around 10 minutes):
We expect Q1-2022 GDP to expand by just under 1% q-o-q. Much of the jump in activity will likely have come from household consumption and private investment (including net acquisitions, dwelling investment, and stocks).
Looking ahead to Q2, we will be watching the March GDP number closely, given the carry over effect into the next quarter. On this front, we expect monthly GDP to have flatlined, with risks tilted to a negative print. We continue to expect a Q2 contraction, with the economy shrinking by 0.2% q-o-q – a call we’ve had for some time now.
For 2022, we continue to see growth printing at 3.8%, though risks to our projection are tilted to the downside, with recession risks likely to remain elevated into…
